Summary

As the Federal Reserve tries to eliminate the demons & spirits of inflation and a possible recession, America gets ready to celebrate Halloween, the second largest commercial holiday after Christmas.

Halloween spending is expected to reach a record $12.2 billion (say “inflation”!), with 73% of people participating in Halloween-related activities and a per person spending record of $108.24 each. In this edition of the Great Point Capital (GPC) newsletter we ponder if investors should be fearful of the last quarter of 2023 or look beyond the economic ghosts of the past that we carve out below?

Many of us from the Midwest, remember sitting around the table or around the fall fire excited for Halloween and reading out loud; INJUN SUMMER by John T. McCutcheon. The timeless story was published each year from September 30, 1907 onwards in the Chicago Tribune.

Summary

Per the beautiful picture above, the last week of August saw the last Super Blue Moon until 2037. The photos of the Super Blue Moon around the world are stunning. Like the moon, the US Consumer (the resilient and driving force behind the strength of the US economy), can go through different phases and is now entering a critical reflection point.

Summary

Do The Market and Fed Finally Agree on the Economy?

Summary

The first half of the year has shown that the US consumer and US employee are independent and resilient. Today the important June Employment report was released. This will provide further insight into if the FED is going to be able to orchestrate a perfect landing of the largest most resilient economy in the world. All the while, the US yield curve is saying something completely different.

The 2023 regional bank crisis is now in the rear view mirror leading to a FOMO rally (Fear Of Missing Out) in equities as a concentrated focus in a select number of stocks (thanks to AI) has led equity markets to get within striking distance of all time highs. See MORNINGSTAR's 14 Charts A New Bull Market for Stocks, Mixed Returns for Bonds in Q2.

Summary

The FED is almost ready to pause, inflation pressures are easing, and employment is still strong. Tech & growth stocks are back in focus and there are valid concerns in the commercial real estate market.

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US economy grows 1.1% in Q1, GDP slower than expected: U.S. economic activity in the first quarter of 2023 grew at an annualized pace of 1.1%, a slower pace than expected and showing that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve considers a further interest rate increase on May 3.

Summary

The end of March saw Core PCE numbers come in lower than expected, but still showing inflation at twice the rate of the Fed’s 2% target. The US 10 yr. interest rate closed exactly at 3.50%, and the market saw the end of Q1 equity portfolio window dressing as $'s flowed back into equities. Nasdaq is up by approximately +17% YTD, and the often reliable Fear & Greed Index — which tracks what sentiment and emotions are driving the markets — is now back to neutral.